Congress is set to record a crushing win in Haryana while the NC-led alliance in Jammu & Kashmir could be well placed to form the government in the Union territory, according to exit polls released Saturday.
If the polls turn out right – a big if – it would buttress the feeling that momentum is against BJP and with the INDIA bloc. In the build-up to crucial state assembly elections in Maharashtra due next month and in Jharkhand and Delhi early next year, that gives the ruling alliance at the Centre reason for worry while acting as a morale booster for the opposition.
On Haryana, the four polls analysed here all agreed that Congress would win and most projected that it would be close to the two-thirds mark, if not over it, in the 90-member assembly.Three of the four polls gave Congress 50 or more seats even at the lower end of their range of projected seats. At the top end of the range, Congress could get up to 65 seats. Even in the fourth poll, released by Dainik Bhaskar, the mid-point of the range was 49, above the majority mark of 46.
All the polls also agreed that the Dushyant Chautala-led JJP, which had played kingmaker five years ago, would be completely decimated and the INLD-BSP alliance too would not be able to win a significant number of seats.
In Jammu & Kashmir, the three polls agreed that the NC-Congress-CPM combined had a clear edge over BJP, and that PDP, which had formed govt with BJP in 2014, would be nearly decimated.
However, two of them left the NC alliance short of the majority mark even in the best-case scenario while the third suggested it might just about reach that target. However, given the large number of independents and others projected to win, and with PDP unlikely to go with BJP, NC would likely be better placed to cobble together a govt than BJP.