NEW DELHI: The BJP is all set to retain power in Maharashtra with its Mahayuti allies – Shiv Sena and NCP- and could be in for a very close contest in Jharkhand, according to exit poll predictions for the two states. The poll of polls projects clear lead for the Mahayuti with 155 seats while the opposition’s Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance could get 122 seats in the 288-member state assembly. The others may get 11 seats. However, in Jharkhand, the contest is likely to be close. According to the poll of polls prediction for the state, the BJP-led NDA will win 40 seats which is just one short to hit the majority in the 81-member assembly while chief minister Hemant Soren-led INDIA bloc could bag 37 seats.
In Maharashtra, three pollsters – Peoples Pulse, Matrize and Chankya Strategies have predicted clear majority for the Mahayuti while the rest three – P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar and Poll Diary have predicted Mahayuti ahead of the MVA, but short of majority.
The Matrize exit poll predicted 150-170 seats for the BJP and allies in Maharashtra with a 48 per cent vote share, it gave the Congress and other allies only 110-130 seats with a vote share of 42 per cent. The poll gave others 8 to 10 seats, with a vote share of 10 per cent.
People’s Pulse gave NDA’s Mahayuti a whopping 175-195 seats while giving only 85-112 seats to MVA and 7-12 to others in Maharashtra. P-MARQ has predicted a total of 137-157 seats for the Mahayuti and 126-146 seats for INDIA Bloc’s MVA. Exit polls by Poll Diary predicted the NDA to win in 122-186 seats and the MVA 69-121 while forecasting 12-29 seats for others in Maharashtra. Chanakya Strategies, another pollster, has predicted 152-160 seats for Mahayuti and 130-138 seats for MVA while giving 6-8 seats for others in Maharashtra.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP had emerged as the single largest party with 105 seats and its ally the Shiv Sena had won 56. However, the two allies could not agree on the chief minister’s post following which Uddhav Thackeray parted ways with the BJP. He went on to form the MVA government with the help of Congress and the NCP which had won 44 and 54 seats respectively. In 2022, the BJP extracted its revenge after Eknath Shinde split the Shiv Sena to ensure the fall of the MVA government. Shinde was made the chief minister by the BJP. A year later, Ajit Pawar rebelled against his uncle Sharad Pawar and split the NCP to complete the Mahayuti.
NDA ahead in Jharkhand close contest
In Jharkhand, the BJP is projected ahead of the JMM-led INDIA bloc by several pollsters while one has predicted a clean sweep for chief minister Hemant Soren. The poll of exit polls for Jharkhand predicts 40 seats for the BJP-led NDA and 38 for the JMM-led INDIA bloc in the state.
The Matrize Exit poll has predicted 42-47 seats for NDA and 25-30 seats for the INDIA bloc while giving 0-4 seats to others. People’s Pulse has projected 44-53 seats for NDA and 25-37 seats for INDIA Bloc. It has given 5-9 seats to others. Chanakya Strategies exit poll says BJP-led NDA is likely to win 45-50 seats in the state while JMM-led alliance could win 35-38 seats. It said others could get 3-5 seats. Times Now-JVC has predicted 40-44 seats for BJP-led NDA and 30-40 seats for INDIA bloc.
However, Axis My India has predicted a clean sweep for the JMM-led alliance in Jharkhand and projected that the INDIA bloc will win 53 seats. The pollster has given NDA 25 seats and Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JKLM) two seats. According to the projections, JLKM could end up damaging the prospects of NDA in the state by walking away with a large chunk of Mahto votes.
The only polling agency forecasting a hung house in Jharkhand is Dainik Bhaskar. It shows people’s mandate vertically divided with both alliances settling between 36-40 seats, moderately shorter than the halfway mark of 41.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the JMM had emerged as the single largest party in Jharkhand with 30 seats, while the BJP could manage only 25. JMM formed a government in alliance with the Congress which had won 16 seats and the RJD which had one seat.
It will be interesting to see how the exit polls fare when the votes are counted on November 23. With two big back to back exit poll failures this year, all political parties, and, even the pollsters, would wait for the final results with bated breath.