NEW DELHI: Congress couldn’t have imagined a drubbing like the one it got in Maharashtra, where MVA managed only 46 seats – 10 fewer than INDIA bloc’s tally in Jharkhand, where the assembly is less than one-third the size of the western state. Congress’s weakness in straight fights with BJP has also been highlighted again.
Coming just six months after BJP’s LS reverses in Maharashtra, the party will interpret its best-ever tally in the state as a revalidation of PM Modi’s brand of politics. His authority, following a win in Haryana and sweep in Maharashtra, is now all but restored after the knock it took following LS results. In his post-victory speech, Modi made it plain he would focus as much on ‘development’ as on Hindutva themes and the ‘virasat’ (heritage) platform.
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A charged-up BJP will push its plans on UCC and one nation, one election more aggressively. Passing the ONOE bill will be easier after two state wins.
DECODING THE VERDICT: THE BIG MESSAGES
- Woman power : Women are now a voting bloc on their own. Proof: cash transfers to women have led to big wins for parties across the political spectrum. Parties already tailor promises for women — from safety to privileging them in rural housing schemes. Expect this trend to accelerate. Early rollout of women’s quota seems a stronger possibility
- Identity politics is a two-way street: BJP came out with ‘ek hain to safe hain’ and ‘batenge to katenge’ pitches in response to targeting of its candidates in Maharashtra by Muslim clerics and leaders working in concert with ‘secular’ activists and parties. BJP’s messages will be amplified in coming days
- Rahul’s key platforms have stopped giving dividends: BJP’s reverses in LS polls were put down by many to Congress’s embrace of caste census. This was a simplistic explanation, and the Maharashtra results, with OBC consolidation helping BJP, have further highlighed its inadequacy. They also show that BJP has managed to dent the charge that it was out to scrap quotas. With the antiAgniveer bet having already bombed in Haryana, Congress needs to try new things
- Cash works: Direct cash transfers can be effective. Starting with Kisan Samman stipend for farmers, they have regularly turned out to be match-winners. Ladki Bahin Yojna and Maiya Samman were big factors in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, respectively
- Dominant caste burden: The advantage a party gains via support from a dominant caste can turn into a liability if the constituency resorts to muscle flexing. Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange Patil’s aggressive stand pushed OBCs towards BJP, in a repeat of similar scenarios in Haryana, Bihar and UP