Early trends suggest former US President and Republican nominee Donald Trump secured an initial lead with approximately 150 electoral votes over vice president Kamala Harris. However, political analysts warn that this early advantage may not reveal the ultimate outcome, as Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could still reverse the tide.
The phenomenon, often dubbed as “mirages” in elections, is set to play a central role in shaping public perceptions on election night, especially in battleground states where vote-counting quirks can paint misleading pictures.
What gave Trump a chance to claim ‘stolen election’
In 2020, states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin exhibited what experts call a “red mirage,” showing Trump leading on election night before a “blue shift” occurred as mail-in ballots heavily favored by Democrats were tallied, ultimately pushing Joe Biden into the lead.
Trump’s team utilized this pattern to push claims of a stolen election, though the outcome was merely a consequence of the state’s voting laws and mail-in ballot trends. This week, similar dynamics are expected, only to see a shift as in-person votes are counted in states like North Carolina and Georgia.
Why declaring victory is complex
As ballots roll in, Trump’s campaign reportedly plans to declare victory should he appear to cross the critical 270 electoral vote mark—a move experts say could be premature given the complexities of ballot processing across various states.
With a large portion of Democratic voters in populous urban areas, where vote processing tends to be slower, delayed counts could heavily influence final tallies in the days following Election Day. This variance in vote reporting will leave some states, particularly Pennsylvania and Arizona, caught in a prolonged counting process as absentee ballots trickle in.
What delays results
Each battleground state has its own timeline and rules for processing votes, and these could impact the perceived winner on election night. Pennsylvania, for instance, prohibits election officials from counting mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day, potentially delaying results for days as Democratic mail-in votes gradually reduce Trump’s in-person voting advantage. A new law aims to ease concerns by requiring counties to disclose the number of outstanding mail ballots by midnight, helping to preempt misinformation.
In Wisconsin, where votes are processed centrally in major cities, large early-morning dumps of absentee ballots may again tip the scales in Harris’s favor, just as they did for Biden in 2020. Similarly, North Carolina, known for its extended vote canvassing, may keep Americans guessing for days as absentee and overseas ballots continue to be counted even after election night.
In states like Arizona, where voting by mail is highly popular, early results could show Harris in the lead due to early and mail-in ballots, though the numbers might edge towards Trump as in-person votes are added. This trend may reverse again once all mail ballots—including those dropped off on Election Day—are counted in subsequent days.
Nevada, infamous for its protracted counting process in 2020, could see swifter tabulation this year due to new regulations allowing early ballot processing weeks before Election Day. However, Nevada’s allowance for late-arriving mail ballots postmarked by November 5 may delay a final result, as historically Democratic late ballots are counted.